I'm convinced that we are going to have a successful UASF by August 1st. This is in spite of the fact that I acknowledge the following: core devs do not want to merge BIP148 for fear of consensus failure; most users are watching from the sidelines; Jihan Wu will likely reject the final NY proposal and continue to mine status quo right up until the last minute.
So why am I convinced it will pass?
It is an underdog effort that everybody who understands Bitcoin and has been in it for a long time wants to see succeed. The core devs all say they want to see it succeed (but they don't see enough supporters of it). Some of the companies signing on to the NY Agreement say they did so to get SegWit and they'd be happy to see it activated via successful soft fork. Long term holders are asking for futures markets where they can buy more BIP148 coins and dump legacy or BarryCoin tokens. The only objection raised by knowledgable people is that they worry it won't succeed, not that they don't support its goal.
What every Bitcoin adherent knows is that Bitcoin is the child of genius software development designed to create the world's most antifragile platform to serve as incorruptible money. Barry Silbert does not know this, yet. Jihan Wu does not know this, yet. They will know it on August 1st however.
With SegWit we have genius code that preserves decentralization and security and allows Bitcoin to launch layer 2 solutions with the same decentralization and security. That genius comes from coders who are on the project to create these principles in code. And real Bitcoin users know that Bitcoin dies if we let non-technical "businessmen" who make ambiguous demands for rushed code with conflicting specifications replace the code developed by real developers.
The support of this underdog effort will be revealed as the days draw near. The opponents of BIP148 will freak out loudly as the activation date draws near. They will see that the will of those pushing for Bitcoin's future is just as antifragile as Bitcoin itself. And they will cower out of the way when it does come as the true supporters cheers and participation amplify with each passing day. And on August 1st, the non-technical objectors will move aside and let the code of the experts activate, knowing that it is that code that must reign in the land of Bitcoin.