13% of hash-power has been said to be the absolute minimum for the UASF to succeed. This will be just enough to get SegWit activated before time runs out on the current BIP-141 deployment.
But it is still not crucial to have as much as 13% exactly on august 1st
We only need to get the 148 chain started! The snowball will start to roll at this point… Even if we add only one block per day in the beginning (less than 1%) this will be enough to attract more hash-power…
There will be several tipping points and all of them will attract more hash-power:
The first tipping point is when a split actually occurs. -More hash-power will be added as a result. Both idealistic and speculative mining will join.
The second tipping point is when we reach 100 blocks, and the first newly mined 148-coins gets to the market. -More hash-power will be added when the new 148-coins are sold at a good price, and I’m sure they will be sold at a * very * good price! Users will own an equal amount of 148-coins and legacy-coins. The newly mined 148-coins can now be mixed with “old-148-coins” to provide replay protection.
The third tipping point is when we reach a level of hash power that makes it realistic for SegWit to get activated with the current BIP-141 deployment.. This will again attract more hash-power..
The fourth tipping point: Is when we actually get segwit activated. At this point the difficulty will also be readjusted, and the block interval will be returned back to 10 minutes.. This will surely bring us closer to The-Ultimate-Tipping-Point which is when 50% of all the hash-power have chosen follow the users.
I’m sure there are several more early tipping points that I have’t even thought of yet.. Please leave a comment if you can think of any tipping points that I have missed.