Bitcoin blurb that turned into an essay:
I’ve been following Bitcoin since 2014 when I first observed it spike to a $1000 that then crash to $200. Since then, I’ve been very anti-Bitcoin, specifically when looking at it as a form of currency, which needs to be (1) a store of value, (2) a unit of account, and (3) a medium of exchange. Bitcoin’s price will never be stable enough to actually be a currency, IMO. HOWEVER, I have started to turn more bullish on Bitcoin, especially over the long term because investors the world over are hungry for asset diversity.
However, since it’s an asset, it is ultimately tied to the global financial system, which is dominated by the US, which is in turn dominated by the Fed. I’d say there are many things causing Bitcoin to fall, but I think the Fed raising rates along with shrinking their balance sheet is a big factor. Effectively, the Fed is making the value of money go up by reducing supply and increasing rates, which means you can easily get ~2% yield in a money-market fund. Also, their actions combined with Trump’s antics have helped induce or at least intensify a global bear market. Most Americans don’t realize that assets have been getting walloped this year outside the US.
Anywho, on to the positive. I see Bitcoin as much more analogous to gold then a currency. You don’t use gold to buy stuff because there are so many more efficient means to do so. Yet it still has value because so many see it as such. The key for Bitcoin is the relatively limited supply that cannot be produced arbitrarily. You cannot counterfeit Bitcoin (to the best of my knowledge). There is no way to hack into the Bitcoin “system,” at least now although there might be future risks that arise from quantum computing, although I read that the Bitcoin system could adapt to such a threat (if you see a future, systemic threat to Bitcoin, then please tell!). There will not be a sudden spike in aggregate supply, although supply at a given time in the marketplace will vary greatly. This means that it actually is a viable asset.
When I turned my back on Bitcoin in 2014, I did so because I just didn’t like its risk/reward. One of the big reasons for me was that it could easily just slowly sputter out and die. I saw it as a niche computer experiment. However, critically, it has become a household name. The boom last year was an extremely effective advertisement in this regard. Bitcoin is known by everyone who is in finance. Many see it as too volatile, which is a fair reason to not buy in. Many also see it as rigged, which it is. Even so, the idea of Bitcoin and other cryptos continue to seep into the human psyche. With Bitcoin, crucially, being the first mover as a durable crypto asset that has achieved global awareness, it will likely continue to be the leader in the space. From my perspective, this bear market has been good for Bitcoin long-term since the other secondary players are getting washed out.
The BIG POSITIVE in my book, though, which is leading me to soon buy my first Bitcoin, is the fact that as the price and market cap goes down, the easier it is to support. The lower it goes, the more powerful this idea becomes. That is to say it is becoming increasingly easy for demand to match the supply on the market in terms of fiat currency. I don’t know when it will bottom, but it will be way higher than $0. In that case, literally no one would buy a Bitcoin for any price. That is clearly absurd. I don’t know when the bottom will occur, but it will occur one day. When that day comes, it will be a stronger, more mature asset in a pruned crypto space. I don’t like to pretend I am a market caller, although I was warning people about Bitcoin when it jumped up to $2,000 and just kept rising last year. Still, I feel that the bottom is going to occur relatively soon. There is just too much fucking fiat sloshing through the world economy looking for a good place to settle. I, with a good bit of confidence, say that Bitcoin will continue to be one of those places well into the future.
Now that I’ve taken an hour to write this essay at 1am when I was planning on just typing a little blurb, I can confidently say, what the fuck am I doing with my life? Also, what is the best cold storage crypto-wallet right now, because I’m about to jump into the frenzy and HODL. 😅
P.S. someone please respond to this so I don’t think I completely wasted my time.
Yea, I’m that needy.